000
FXUS64 KMAF 181108
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
508 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Please see 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through most of this forecast period.
A cold front has reached all TAF sites this morning and winds
will remain easterly, becoming gusty late this morning. Winds
could gust over 30 mph at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 AM CST Mon Feb 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Underneath fast mid-level flow the MSLP will increase through the
morning reflecting colder air pushing farther west and becoming
deeper. Soundings support continuation of high clouds and
aforementioned cooling will result today`s high temps about 5
degrees cooler in most areas, except in the ne where temperatures
will be about 10 degrees cooler. Meanwhile a cold mid-level low
will track eastward across the swrn states today and Tue AM. Cold
air will surge south into W TX/SE NM Mon night/Tue AM ahead of
the mid-level trough setting up low-level isentropic ascent, seen
along the I290K surface. Model QPF is light and moisture depth is
only about 3KFT deep at 18Z/Tue (NAM12). Even though moisture
depth is shallow it is pretty cold (-7C at 85h) and light wintry
precip is possible mostly north of I-20, light freezing rain,
light sleet, or even light snow. The precip window is short as
mid-level trough kicks out to the north late Tue PM and low/mid-
level winds will veer hard to the west. West surface winds into
Wed AM will help to keep temps up some. Thereafter, dry westerly
flow will ensue along with a warming trend through Friday. A
passing mid-level trough will push a Pacific cold front through
Sat with the possibility of a very windy day, including virga?
More of the same Sun/Mon, warmer/drier.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  30  40  29 /   0  10  30  10
Carlsbad                       58  27  50  27 /   0   0  30   0
Dryden                         59  41  64  38 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  58  35  60  34 /   0   0  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 55  26  47  29 /   0   0  30   0
Hobbs                          51  21  45  24 /   0   0  30   0
Marfa                          59  28  60  24 /   0   0  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           53  31  42  30 /   0   0  20  10
Odessa                         53  28  43  30 /   0   0  20  10
Wink                           58  33  53  28 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

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NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion