000
FXUS64 KMAF 170829
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
329 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The main story this week is the increasing rain chances over the
next few days. Currently, we remain under southwest flow aloft
with a large upper trough to the west and upper ridging to the
east. Expect to remain under this regime this week, maintaining
good advection of mid and upper level moisture across the region.
Meanwhile, surface flow will be fairly weak without a strong
surface pressure gradient but we will still see a steady flow of
Gulf moisture during this time. Above normal temperatures expected
each day this week and weak upper disturbances moving overhead
along the theta-e ridge will give us the extra instability needed
for thunderstorms to develop. Storms will be more isolated in
nature today, mainly affecting western portions this afternoon and
evening.

Wednesday, rain chances will increase and expand a little farther to
the east. A strong shortwave will dig through the base of the upper
trough to the northwest on Thursday, providing a bit more lift to
the region. With the theta-e ridge anchored over the area, expect
thunderstorm chances to expand area wide. The upper trough will
finally start to move east toward the Central Plains Friday with
rain chances holding on through Saturday.

We may see a short break in the rain chances Sunday with a brief
period of zonal flow aloft. Models are in fairly good agreement that
SW flow aloft will return the beginning of next week as an upper low
quickly digs south toward the 4 Corners region. Beyond this point,
the models differ in the handling of this upper low but most
scenarios will keep rain chances in the forecast. Hopefully we will
begin to see a consensus in the coming days. Otherwise, high
tempertures look to remain above normal, in the upper 80s to low
90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  69  93  70 /   0   0  10  10
Carlsbad                       92  67  95  69 /  20  10  20  20
Dryden                         96  72  97  73 /  10   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  92  69  94  70 /  10  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 83  65  85  65 /  20  10  20  20
Hobbs                          89  66  92  67 /  10  10  10  20
Marfa                          85  61  86  61 /  30  20  40  30
Midland Intl Airport           92  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
Odessa                         92  70  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
Wink                           94  70  96  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/27

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion