000
FXUS64 KMAF 180529
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1229 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS is moving away from the TAF sites tonight. More will develop
after 18Z but will wait till the next TAF issuance for better
confidence in timing. VFR conditions will remain the next 24 hours
outside of convection.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/

UPDATE...

See public discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Public products have been updated for Severe Thunderstorm Watch
box # 391 until 10 pm CDT or 9 pm MDT for southeast New Mexico
and west Texas along and west of a Lamesa, Midland, Sheffield
line.

Products to be sent shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Despite a weak upper level ridge over the region strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected tonight through Tuesday night across
west Texas and portions of southeast New Mexico as a couple of
upper level disturbances move through the ridge and interact with
a moist and very unstable airmass. By Tuesday the dryline should
mix far enough east of southeast New Mexico to keep the precipitation
east of that area.

By Wednesday and Thursday zonal flow aloft will push the dryline
into west Central Texas and push the threat of thunderstorms
east of the forecast area. Low level thermal ridging and downslope
flow will allow high temperatures to climb to much above normal
values. Localized Heat Advisory criteria may be met near and
along the Rio Grande River(near Boquillas Canyon) Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon. Later shifts will need to monitor.

By Friday through next weekend southwesterly flow aloft will
develop once again ahead of a slow moving Pacific upper level
storm system. Default NBM guidance pops seem too low in this
regime and prefer the higher superblend pops for thunderstorms
in the eastern Permian Basin. Temperatures will remain above
normal through the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71 101  69 103 /  30   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       68 101  69 103 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         73 104  74 104 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72 102  72 103 /  20  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 68  94  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  98  66 102 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          62  94  62  96 /  10  10   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           72 102  70 104 /  20   0   0   0
Odessa                         71 102  69 105 /  20   0   0   0
Wink                           69 104  68 106 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion