788
FXUS64 KMAF 181047
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
547 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 546 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

- High winds and blowing dust expected today and Monday, mainly
  in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

- Critical fire weather conditions expected to impact southeast
  New Mexico and portions of west Texas Sunday and Monday.

- Well above normal temperatures continue into the coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

The hot, dry, and windy conditions continue today as another upper
trough approaches helping to increase southwesterly flow aloft.
Leeside surface troughing and deep mixing will lead to gusty winds
by afternoon. High winds with gusts near 70 mph are expected in the
Guadalupe Mountains through the early evening hours. Some of these
higher gusts will spill out onto the plains where gusts near 50 mph
are possible. As winds increase, blowing dust could lower
visibilities to around 1-3 miles. The shorter duration of the
stronger winds should limit the dust to only a couple of hours or
so. Low level thermal ridging anchored directly over the region will
lead to another day of highs well into the 90s and 100s.

As we head into the evening, height falls will pull the dryline back
west to near I-20. Simultaneously, a shortwave will arrive
helping to fire a few storms along the dryline. Some of these
storms could be strong, but will quickly move east of our area
with the arrival of a Pacific front. The main threats will be
strong winds and small hail.

The base of the upper trough passes to our north during the day
Monday. Expect another windy, dust-filled day with gusts around 40
mph for much of the area (much higher in the mountains). Lowering
heights and the low-level thermal ridge displaced to our east will
allow high temperatures to cool a few degrees from what we will see
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

An upper low swings passed the area late Monday and into Tuesday
with a front rolling through and shifting winds out of the
northwest. This sets the stage for dry conditions on Tuesday and
Wednesday with near normal temperatures holding for at least
Tuesday. However, temperatures rebound quickly for Wednesday and
into the end of the week with most spots reaching into the mid to
upper 90s. With southwesterly flow holding into next weekend, well
above normal temperatures will continue. An upper low moves in just
to the west of the region late in the week and will bring low(25 kts at all terminals
through the afternoon before diminishing by evening. BLDU could
limit visibilities at KCNM and KHOB, but recent green- up should
help somewhat.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun May 18 2025

A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for this afternoon and into
this evening as RHs will be critical(

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion