950
FXUS64 KMAF 122354
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
554 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Windy to very windy conditions will overspread the area from west
to east as a Pacific front moves across the region tonight into
Thursday morning. Northwesterly wind gusts to 40-50kt will be
common across the area, with intermittent higher gusts possible,
especially at CNM and possibly HOB/PEQ. Have also introduced
mention of BLDU at West Texas terminals beginning Thursday
morning, and have maintained MVFR visibilities, though IFR may be
possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with abundant
mid- and upper level clouds. A quick shot of RA/RASN is possible
on Thursday, however, uncertainty precludes inclusion at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 PM CST Wed Dec 12 2018/

DISCUSSION...

As of 400PM CST, winds are beginning to pick up out west.
The Bowl is gusting to near 50 mph and is expected to reach
high wind criteria later on this evening. Our current wind storm
is on track to eject into New Mexico and West Texas later tonight.
The upper low will deepen and become cutoff as it does so. Strong
winds on the order of 30-40 mph will be prevalent on the back
side of the low as it passes the region. Right now there is a
High Wind Warning in effect for the Guadalupe Mtns. We have opted
to add zones from Southeast New Mexico into the Davis Mtns/Marfa
Plateau to the warning starting at 1200AM CST. By daybreak
tomorrow, the strong winds will begin to overspread the Permian
Basin and the rest of West Texas which is covered by a Wind
Advisory. Some of the northern zones may need to be upgraded
depending on model trends.

In addition to the very windy conditions, the potential exists
for precipitation to develop near the low pressure center.
A rain/snow mix is possible as forecast soundings indicate,
especially across the north and northeast, however surface
temperatures will likely be too warm for any significant
accumulations. The wind will also aid in drying out the subcloud
layer which will hinder snow accumulation. This sublimation
process may enhance wind gusts and cause reductions in visibility
due to blowing snow/dust.

After this storm system exits the region, winds will slacken and
much colder air will settle in tomorrow night. Lows should be in
the upper 20s region-wide. The cutoff low will continue eastward
into the Arklatex region on Friday. Surface winds will remain out
of the north and could be a bit brisk with temperatures topping
out in the mid-upper 50s.

The weekend looks quiet as upper ridging builds in behind the late
week storm. Temperatures will warm above normal with dry conditions
in place. Models show a couple of weak upper troughs affecting the
region next week, but moisture will remain sparse so have kept
precip out of the forecast for now.

-Salerno

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  47  28  57 /  10  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       38  51  24  57 /  20  20   0   0
Dryden                         43  55  31  61 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  49  28  56 /  10  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 33  44  28  50 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          35  48  23  57 /  20  30   0   0
Marfa                          33  47  20  55 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  49  29  58 /  10  40   0   0
Odessa                         40  49  28  58 /  10  40   0   0
Wink                           39  52  24  59 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 4 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM MST Thursday
     for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea
     County-Southern Lea County.

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM CST Thursday for Andrews-Big
     Bend Area-Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-
     Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-
     Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 4 PM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 5 PM
     CST /4 PM MST/ Thursday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-
     Marfa Plateau-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion