198
FXUS64 KMAF 251122
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
622 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible once again this
afternoon and evening, mainly in southeast New Mexico and west
of the Pecos River (30-50% chances).
- Rain chances become more widespread Monday before diminishing
Tuesday. Chances return again to much of the area by Thursday
and Friday.
- Near-to below-normal temperatures are expected through Monday.
Warmer and drier weather is expected Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday afternoon)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across mainly
southeast New Mexico. Limited instability has caused the severe risk
to diminish. However, we will continue to keep a close eye out for
localized flash flooding over the course of the next couple of
hours, given some storm training is evident. This activity will
continue to shift northeastward throughout the morning, gradually
weakening as it does so. As a result of this gradual weakening, it
continues to look like the eastern half of the area (ie most of the
Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos) will largely miss out on rain this
morning. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected
this afternoon and evening for locations mainly west of the Pecos.
Similar to yesterday afternoon, cloudy skies will limit
destabilization today, meaning convective coverage will be less than
we saw yesterday evening/this morning (more scattered versus
numerous). Therefore, rain chances range from 30-50% (up to 60%),
with the highest chances in southeast New Mexico and far west Texas
again. Given the lower storm coverage and limited instability, the
severe risk also looks lower overall this afternoon and evening,
though an isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. Heavy
rainfall may also lead to localized flash flooding, given our PWATs
will be in the 90-99th percentile.
By Monday, the upper-level system to our west starts to make its way
across our area. As a result, rain chances increase once again, but
this time much of the Permian Basin and Trans-Pecos will have a
better shot of seeing showers and thunderstorms. Chances range from
30-60% across the area. This activity clears out by the beginning of
the Long Term period as the trough moves to our east. Highs stay in
the upper 60s and low-to-mid 70s both today and Monday, and lows
fall into the mid-to-upper 50s and low 60s. Breezy winds persist
this afternoon but start to diminish Monday as surface troughing
finally weakens.
Sprang
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 203 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
By Tuesday morning, most of the rain will have cleared west Texas
and southeast New Mexico as our area ends up behind the upper-level
trough. Diminished cloud cover and rising heights allow temperatures
to climb back into the mid-to-upper 70s and low 80s through
Thursday. However, by Thursday our region once again ends up under
southwesterly flow aloft. Shortwaves within this flow allow rain
chances to increase yet again across the area, mainly Thursday
afternoon into Friday. Increased cloud cover and rain chances keep
highs a bit cooler Friday (temperatures in the 70s for most
locations). Once again, it looks like PWATs will be in the 90th
percentile or higher across the area, so heavy rainfall leading to
at least localized flash flooding would be a concern. Still plenty
of details to iron out, so stay tuned for updates! Rain chances look
to diminish Saturday behind a weak Pacific front.
Sprang
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
MVFR CIGs have developed at all sites except FST and PEQ this
morning (though those terminals are also expected to see MVFR
ceilings develop over the next couple of hours). These CIGs will
persist throughout the day, with reductions to IFR conditions
expected at HOB and INK (and temporarily at CNM). Guidance indicates
a few sites may briefly return to VFR this evening, but widespread
MVFR conditions return by the end of the TAF period. Southeasterly
winds will be gusty today, similar to the previous couple of days.
Shower and storm chances are lower overall today than yesterday, but
confidence was high enough at CNM to include a PROB 30 for -TSRA
this evening.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 76 62 73 59 / 10 10 50 40
Carlsbad 73 57 71 55 / 60 50 70 30
Dryden 74 61 74 59 / 20 20 40 50
Fort Stockton 75 60 75 58 / 20 20 40 40
Guadalupe Pass 67 55 65 53 / 50 60 70 30
Hobbs 68 57 67 54 / 50 40 40 30
Marfa 72 53 70 51 / 20 30 50 40
Midland Intl Airport 73 61 70 58 / 10 10 50 40
Odessa 72 61 70 59 / 20 10 50 40
Wink 74 60 73 57 / 30 20 50 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...13
NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion