FXUS64 KMAF 062045

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021


(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

VFR and SKC over the next 24 hours. Elevated winds continue at
KMAF but all other sites winds have fallen below 12kts sustained.
Winds will slowly shift from N to E through this afternoon before
becoming S overnight.


(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

Much cooler temperatures this afternoon thanks to the cold front
that passed through early this morning. Expect high temperatures
today mainly in the low to mid 50s with a few 60s in the Big Bend
region. Gusts have already died down nearly everywhere with winds
slowly shifting easterly/southeasterly this afternoon. Skies will
remain clear today and overnight, which will allow many spots to
drop below freezing. While models show a large spread of low
temperatures for our region tonight, have leaned more on the NAM
which handles cold air advection better than others. With light
winds, clear skies, and NAM showing very cool temperatures, have
gone ahead with a Freeze Warning for Crane, Upton, and Reagan
counties and a Hard Freeze Warning for Reeves, Ward, Loving,
Winkler, Scurry, Borden, and Howard counties.

We return to zonal flow on Tuesday, helping us warm into the low to
mid 70s Tuesday afternoon with mostly clear skies. A tightening
gradient over the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains will result in
wind speeds nearing high wind criteria, so have gone ahead and
included a High Wind Watch for the 18-23z time period. Temperatures
Tuesday night will be warmer than the previous night with mid 30s
to mid 40s. No precipitation expected in the short term.


(Wednesday through  Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Dec 6 2021

Tuesday night and Wednesday, West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
will be under zonal flow aloft.  Leeside troughing on the Front
Range will increase southwesterly downslope flow across the area,
adding a warming component to unseasonably high temperatures
Wednesday afternoon.  Wednesday and Thursday, a closed trough off
the coast of Baja will open and move east, transitioning flow aloft
to zonal before merging into synoptic flow.  This will result in
even stronger southwesterlies Thursday afternoon and, consequently,
slightly higher temperatures.

Friday will be the most active day in the extended, as the
aforementioned west coast trough arrives, increasing westerlies
across the area.  The pattern is such that the timing of the trough
will yield high winds in the Guadalupes/Delawares, and windy
conditions on the adjacent plains as well.  Attm, afternoon relative
humidity across the board looks to remain above critical criteria,
but RFTIs will be near-critical over much of the area.  ERCs in the
70th to 90th percentile are forecast in the foothills of the higher
terrain, and in parts of the Permian Basin.  This will be monitored
closely between now and then, as parameters will likely modify from
what they are now.  At best, elevated fire wx is likely across all
but the Presidio Valley/Big bend Area/Lower Trans Pecos.  At worse,
a RFW may be needed for the Guadalupes/Delawares/adjacent areas.

Isolated showers will be possible Friday w/the arrival of the
trough, but these will be confined to the Sacramento
Foothills/Gudalupes.  Otherwise, extended grids stay dry.

Unfortunately, a secondary, larger trough will arrive late Friday
night/Saturday, pushing a cold front through the area and taking
temperatures to near-normal Saturday afternoon.  However, return
flow resumes Saturday night, for a quick rebound to highs in the 70s
most locations by Monday afternoon.


Big Spring               29  74  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 29  72  35  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   37  72  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            37  78  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           36  64  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    29  71  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    28  70  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     30  73  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   32  73  41  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     28  75  34  76 /   0   0   0   0


TX...High Wind Watch Tuesday afternoon for Guadalupe and Delaware

     Hard Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Tuesday for Borden-
     Howard-Loving-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Ward-Winkler.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM CST Tuesday for Crane-Reagan-




NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion